The Russian expansion in the Arctic as a threat to the US national security and the American response

Policy Brief Title: The Russian expansion in the Arctic as a threat to the US national security and the American response

Abstract

The Arctic region is considered the cornerstone for the American national security. Today, the rapid shrinking of the Arctic icesheet, due to the climate change, is an undeniable fact. This development is threatening the stability of the fragile ecosystem as well as the inhabitants including the indigenous people who have been living in the Arctic for centuries. Nonetheless, the destruction of the icesheet in the Arctic offers an opportunity to the Great Powers to expand their influence in the region which is characterized from the abundance of natural resources, namely oil and gas. That said, Russia has officially declared its intentions to use the region as a development base for its economy by exploiting the natural resources[1]. Simultaneously, new sea trade routes are available due to the ice melting[2]. Consequently, the new ship lines can bypass vulnerable chokepoints like the Suez Canal and the Malacca Straights significantly decreasing the transportation time and cost[3]. Geography dictates that Moscow is the key player in the region due to its extended coastline while the country has invested significantly on the Arctic to modernize its economic and military footprint in the region[4]. Up to date Russia has the largest fleet of nuclear icebreakers vessels, approximately 36, and it is home of some deep-water ports which provide unremitting access to the region[5]. Additionally, the Russian military presence in the Arctic has significantly increased which raises the security dilemma for the United States and the other Arctic States as Moscow “reconquers” the region[6].

This policy brief focuses on the Arctic and its importance to the national security of the United States as the region transforms into the new field of strategic competition between the two powers while China has also declared its interest in the Arctic. The policy brief argues that the Russian expansion in the region constitutes a direct threat to the American security and sovereignty, on the long term, and suggests that the policy makers in Washington should redirect funds, from the country’s massive military budget to the Arctic region to develop the US military capabilities and counter the Russian buildup.

Defining the Problem

The Russian expansionism in the Arctic

Today we are living in the era of the strategic competition between the United States and China, the most powerful states in the international system in terms of hard and soft power. The unipolar moment of the US after the collapse of the Soviet Union has endend because the raise of the Chinese power in the East Asia and the stabilization of Russia under the presidency of V. Putin. China and Russia are both revisionist powers which aim to remake the world order by eliminating the influence of the United States regionally first and then in global scale. Additionally, Beijing mainly and Moscow secondly are the most credible/capable challengers to the American global power and influence. However, in the Arctic, Russia is the main challenger due to its geography while we cannot exclude the Chinese intervention/presence[7] and the potential cooperation between the two revisionist powers. Focusing on Russia, the country’s security policy is to reshape the ex-soviet sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. The unprovoked attack to Ukraine indicates that the Russian Grand Strategy is to restore the buffer zone between itself and the western (NATO) allies as it existed in the Soviet era. However, the ongoing climate change forces policy makers to focus to another region, the Arctic, because the icesheets (geographical obstacles) are disappearing rapidly (due to the rise of global temperature). The latter constitutes an environmental ongoing crisis/disaster with catastrophic results for the fragile ecosystems of the region and of course its inhabitants. The Arctic’s ice melting will cause a vicious circle of catastrophic consequences globally due to the rise of sea levels. Nonetheless, a climate crisis offers a window of opportunity to the Great Powers like Russia to expand their footprint and influence in the region. Geography is in Russia’s favor because the country has a vast coastline in the Arctic, the most extended than any other arctic state[8]. Additionally, the Arctic has significant natural resources worthy approximately $22 trillion and it is estimated that hosts 13% of World’s undiscovered natural resources[9]. That said, Moscow has already declared its intentions for expansion in the region beyond the 200nm of the country’s EEZ according to the UNCLOS[10]. Consequently, the Arctic is progressively becoming the new area of Russian activity which aims to exploit the region’s vast natural resources. Moreover, the ice melting open new sea lines like the Northern Passage. Thus, cargo ships will be able soon to bypass chokepoints like the Suez Canal or the Malacca straights significantly reducing the cost of transportation. Consequently, the icesheet melting in the Arctic is expected to reshape the global sea trade which will have deep consequences to global trade and economy.