The Russia–Ukraine War Through 2027 | Scenario Assessment 2026/01
A structured assessment of the war’s plausible trajectories, key drivers, and forward indicators through the end of 2027
Photo: Map of Ukraine, with Russian-occupied regions highlighted / Open source
Introduction
The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a phase in which endurance matters more than momentum. What matters now is not only the daily movement of the front line, but which side can continue absorbing military, economic, and political pressure for longer, and under what conditions that balance may shift by 2027.
At this stage, a simple prediction is not enough. What is needed is a structured assessment of plausible futures. In this paper, I draw on the scenario-building discipline associated with RANE/Stratfor-style analysis to examine the most plausible trajectories of the war through the end of 2027. The purpose is not to claim certainty, but to identify the principal drivers of change, outline the main scenarios, and highlight the indicators that may reveal which direction the conflict is taking.
Forecast question
What are the plausible trajectories of the Russia–Ukraine war between now and the end of 2027?
