The Maduro Precedent | Risk Report 2026/01
How a U.S. Operation in Venezuela Is Rewriting the Rules of the Use of Force
1. Executive Summary
On January 3, 2026, the United States conducted a military operation in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, which resulted the capture of the country’s President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. U.S. authorities officially stated that this operation’s aim was to enforce the criminal indictments issued by American courts against N. Maduro regarding narcotics trafficking, transnational organized crime and terrorism financing. After the successful operation, Maduro and his wife transferred to a military base near New York City to stand trial in U.S. federal court.
This operation is one of the most consequential unilateral uses of force by the U.S. since the end of the Cold War and the most direct intervention in Latin America in decades. While some governments welcomed the removal form power of an active President, who is widely seen as a corrupted dictator, the method employed by the U.S. introduces a fundamental systemic risk to international norms governing sovereignty, the use of force and jurisdiction.
This report assesses the consequences of this operation at a global level regarding seven main domains:
The international legal order
Great-Power competition
Regional security in Latin America
Global economic and energy stability,
International institutions and norms,
Terrorism and transnational crime and
Sector specific implications.
Our analysis draws on International Law, historical precedent and strategic risk frameworks used by both governments and multinational corporations.
The main finding is that the operation’s risk on the long-term lies more in precedent erosion than in immediate military escalation. That said, the U.S. has blurred the foundational boundaries in International Relations by conducting, instead of a direct armed conflict, a cross-border military action as law enforcement. If this course of action is replicated by other powers, this logic could lower the threshold regarding unilateral interventions at a global level, increase geopolitical instability and weaken the predictability on which is based the economic, diplomatic and corporate decision-making.
